Welcome to the May issue of Regional Property Insights for 2023, prepared by Tony Alexander with the support of First Mortgage Trust.

In this month’s Regional Property Insights for each region Tony looks at long-term price trends for each region. There are signs that house prices are bottoming out on average around the country and very soon people are going to start wondering which locations have the greatest potential for price gains.

There are many ways to make one’s own estimate including looking at population growth projections, recent construction levels, movements in rents etc.  Balancing population growth against new house supply growth may yield some good insights, but this relies on population growth proceeding as assumed and things are made difficult by the new uncertain gap which has opened up between the number of dwelling consents issued and the number of houses which actually end up being constructed.

In this month’s RPI, Tony presents three graphs for each region:

1. How much house prices have changed from a year earlier, since 2007.  All understandably saw declines recently.
2. Traditional graph looks at where the index of house prices sits for each region in comparison with the nationwide index.  The graph can show periods of extra strength and extra weakness for a region and indicate whether greater than average potential exists.
3. Analysis is tweaked by excluding Auckland from the nationwide price calculation, which allows us to see how each region is tracking against other regions which people may consider as an alternative to living in Auckland.

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Report by Tony Alexander  - tonyalexander.nz

This publication has been provided for general information only. Although every effort has been made to ensure this publication is accurate, the contents should not be relied upon or used as a basis for entering into any products described in this publication. The material in this report is obtained from various sources (including third parties) - neither First Mortgage Trust nor Tony Alexander warrant the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information provided in this report, nor do they accept liability for any omissions, inaccuracies or losses incurred, either directly or indirectly, by any person arising from or in connection with the supply, use or misuse of the whole or any part of this report. Any and all third party data or analysis in this report does not necessarily represent the views of First Mortgage Trust or Tony Alexander. To the extent that any information or recommendations in this publication constitute financial advice, they do not take into account any person’s particular financial situation or goals. We strongly recommend readers seek independent legal/financial advice prior to acting in relation to any of the matters discussed in this publication. No person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever which may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication.